As you know very well, to make long-term profits in sports betting, you have to follow rigorous management of your budget. All professional bettors use a method to control their bets and set limits. This allows them to never lose their entire bankroll and to make money in the long run. Click here for คอมพิวเตอร์ สำหรับ เล่น เกมส์.
What is the Kelly Method?
You might be wondering what the Kelly Method is? Know first that this is a mathematical formula that aims to help you find the ideal amount of a bet. Initially, this calculation was intended for lottery games as well as for investments in finance. Either way, the Kelly Method should increase the growth rate of your balance over a long period of time. Visit this site for เกม คา สิ โน สล็อต.
It was the American mathematician, John Larry Kelly Jr. who set up a calculation criterion that allowed many people to win long-term gains. As the formula can only be applied to results that do not depend on each other, it remains a method favored by online bettors.
Moreover, concerning sports betting, you can easily use the Kelly method to manage your bankroll. Either way, you will have to analyze the odds as well as the probabilities of winning your bet in order to bet the ideal sum.
How to calculate the ideal amount to bet?
To find the optimal amount of your bet, you will have to carry out a small operation. Don’t worry, it’s very easy to do and doesn’t take a lot of time!
Remember confidence cues. If an online bookmaker offers you odds of 3.50 for the victory of the Montreal Impact, know that he considers that the team has a 28.5% chance of winning the match. The calculation to do: (1 / 3.50) x 100 = 28.5.
To apply Kelly’s formula, you can use the bookmaker’s confidence index, but also offer your own. For example, you think the Montreal Impact has a 35% chance of winning the game.
(Rating x Your confidence index in% – 1) / (Rating – 1) = Kelly’s formula.
(3.50 x 35% – 1) / (3.50 – 1) = 9% to bet on the Montreal Impact for this game.
Some tips for using the Kelly method
As you have just noticed, the Kelly method will be useful and effective, only if you make a good estimate of your confidence index. You will therefore have to analyze sporting events and carefully estimate each probability of winning your prediction. Be careful, because if your confidence index is not precise, the Kelly method could make you lose money.
In addition, the Kelly method sometimes offers you a very high ideal amount to bet. Don’t rush and instead think about setting certain limits that you should not exceed. We strongly recommend that you never bet more than 10% of your budget.